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−3.1%
Citywide values were lower than a year earlier in August.
ValuStrat’s VPI stood at 218.8, down only 0.2% month over month but 3.1% year over year. Apartments were 5.3% lower year over year and villas 1.7% lower.
Residential Market Report 2026
Dubai’s 2026 Buyer Window.
Record liquidity has given way to softer pricing and greater buyer selectivity—while transaction depth, population growth and high-value demand remain.
Scroll the evidence
Market signal · Sep 2026
205.4K2025 sales
AED544B2025 value
−3.1%Aug VPI YoY
4.58MPopulation
The thesis
The case is not that Dubai is “cheap.” It is that the decision environment has changed.
The strongest buyer argument in September 2026 is the overlap between price normalization, persistent transaction depth, returning ready-home demand, continued ultra-prime activity and rapid population growth.
Dubai ended 2025 with an all-time record 205,400 residential sales worth AED 544.2 billion. H1 2026 then showed a clear recalibration: Projectory’s DLD-based dataset recorded 79,698 residential-market sales worth AED 227.1 billion, down from the extraordinary H1 2025 pace.
The critical point is what followed. By August, ValuStrat’s residential index was only 0.2% lower month over month, while 73% of freehold villa communities and 61% of apartment communities held values stable during the month. The correction became increasingly selective rather than uniformly citywide.
“The opportunity is not based on claiming an exact market bottom. It is based on recognizing a period in which buyers can be more selective while Dubai continues to demonstrate substantial liquidity and underlying demand.”
Deluxe Avenues Research Desk
Primary references: Knight Frank, Dubai Residential Market Review Q4 2025; Projectory Research using Dubai Land Department records, H1 2026; Khaleej Times reporting ValuStrat August 2026 VPI.
2025 · Record baseline
The buyer window begins from a record—not from a weak market.
Knight Frank recorded 205,400 residential sales in 2025, up 18% year over year, with transaction value increasing 25% to AED 544.2 billion.
What changed
+25%
Sales value grew faster than transaction count. Knight Frank linked this partly to capital appreciation and the growing contribution of higher-value assets. The ultra-luxury market also set a 2025 record with 500 homes sold above US$10 million.
Why it matters now
A 2026 price adjustment therefore follows several years of exceptional appreciation and record liquidity. It is better understood as a recalibration from a high base than as evidence that demand has disappeared.
Source: Knight Frank — Dubai Residential Market Review Q4 2025, published February 2, 2026.
H1 2026 · Recalibration
Headline activity slowed. Off-plan demand did not move in the same direction as the ready market.
Projectory’s DLD dataset recorded 79,698 residential-market sales worth AED 227.1 billion in H1 2026. Total residential-market sales were 14.3% lower year over year, but the split underneath the headline is more important.
Residential-market sales
79,698
H1 2026 registrations in Projectory’s residential-market classification.
Transaction value
AED 227.1B
Down 16.0% year over year from AED 270.3 billion.
Off-plan sales
56,565
Up 3.9% year over year; value also increased 2.8%.
Ready sales
23,133
Down 40.0% year over year during H1.
Share of H1 2026 residential-market sales
Off-plan represented 71% of sales.
71%
Off-plan · 56,565Ready · 23,133
Source and methodology: Projectory Research — Dubai Property Market H1 2026: The DLD Data Report. Projectory notes that its broader residential-market classification includes residential land and whole-building registrations; 75,746 apartment, villa, townhouse and hotel-apartment sales were recorded in the period.
The buyer window
The opportunity sits in the overlap.
No single statistic establishes the “best” time to buy. The current argument comes from four signals moving together.
73% / 61%
Most tracked freehold communities did not move during August.
ValuStrat reported stable monthly values across 73% of freehold villa communities and 61% of apartment communities, illustrating a market that is becoming more location-specific.
+46.8%
Completed-home activity rebounded sharply when prices adjusted.
Ready-home transactions jumped 46.8% month over month in June—the strongest monthly increase in three years—then increased another 11.4% in July to 3,546 deals.
4.58M
Dubai added roughly 332,000 residents in one year.
Dubai’s population reached 4.58 million at the end of 2025, up 7.5% from 2024, according to the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment as cited by the Dubai Media Office.
August 2026 · Latest pricing signal
A softer market—but not a uniform decline.
ValuStrat’s August data shows a citywide correction alongside widespread month-to-month stability and continued off-plan dominance.
Citywide VPI
218.8
−0.2% MoM · −3.1% YoY.
Apartment values
−5.3%
Year over year; −0.2% month over month.
Villa values
−1.7%
Year over year; the segment’s first annual contraction since 2021.
Ready-home sales
3,038
−14.3% MoM and −20.6% YoY.
Off-plan registrations
8,016
−15.4% MoM and −40.4% YoY.
Off-plan share
73%
Still the dominant share of August residential sales.
Source: Khaleej Times, September 9, 2026, reporting ValuStrat’s August 2026 Residential VPI. Additional index context: ValuStrat — Dubai VPI Residential Values August 2026.
Liquidity after the correction
Buyers responded as completed-home pricing adjusted.
June 2026
+46.8%
Ready-home transactions month over month
ValuStrat described the move as the strongest monthly increase in three years. Off-plan registrations rose 32% during the month and represented 75% of residential sales.
July 2026
3,546
Ready-home deals
Completed-home transactions increased another 11.4% from June while the citywide VPI slipped just 0.3% month over month to 219.2.
Sources: ValuStrat / Consultancy ME — June 2026 transaction rebound; ValuStrat / Economy Middle East — July 2026 ready-home activity.
Global capital · Ultra-prime
The top of the market continued to transact at record levels.
Knight Frank recorded 296 Dubai homes above US$10 million in H1 2026, including 26 sales above US$25 million.
US$10M+ sales
296
165 in Q1 and 131 in Q2 2026.
H1 sales value
US$5.1B
Up 14% from H1 2025.
Deal count
+16%
Versus H1 2025; +49% versus H1 2024.
Knight Frank also observed mainstream prices “ebbing” by roughly 5%–20% depending on location during H1, while noting that average values had still risen 82.9% over the previous five-and-a-half years. This reinforces why 2026 should be interpreted as a selective entry environment rather than a broad claim that every Dubai property is undervalued.
Source: Knight Frank — Record-breaking 296 US$10 million+ homes sell in Dubai during H1 2026, July 6, 2026.
Underlying housing demand
Dubai added a population roughly the size of a mid-sized city in one year.
Population · end 2025
4.58M
Official Dubai population at the end of 2025.
One-year increase
+332K
Additional residents compared with 2024.
Annual growth
+7.5%
A structural demand factor for housing, services and infrastructure.
Source: Dubai Media Office citing the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment, July 1, 2026.
GCC comparison
Different markets. Different points in the cycle.
The figures below are intentionally not presented as a ranking. Reporting periods, definitions and market structures differ. The comparison is useful for understanding direction, transaction depth and buyer conditions.
Dubai
H1 2026 residential market79,698 sales
H1 valueAED 227.1B
August VPI−3.1% YoY
Off-plan H1 share71%
High transaction depth combined with a citywide price correction and increasing community-level differentiation.
Abu Dhabi
H1 residential salesAED 70.4B
Apartment repeat-sale prices+20% YoY
Villa repeat-sale prices+12% YoY
Off-plan share of value89%
A strong momentum market in 2026, with rapid appreciation and heavy off-plan concentration.
Ras Al Khaimah
H1 property sales1,274
Sales valueAED 1.353B
Freehold capital values+5.4% YoY
Gross rental yields~5.3%
A smaller but expanding market with tourism-led development and positive residential capital growth.
Saudi Arabia
Q2 residential deals41,000+
Transaction volume−14% YoY
Transaction value~SAR 38B · −27%
Residential price index+2.6% YoY
Large domestic market with positive national price growth, while Q2 transaction activity moderated.
Qatar
Q2 residential sales755
Quarter-on-quarter volume+23.6%
Year-on-year volume+15.8%
Residential VPI97.8 · broadly stable
Q2 buyer activity rebounded while capital values remained broadly unchanged.
Bahrain
H1 real estate transactions4,951
Transaction volume−63.2% YoY
Transaction valueBD 671M · −13.4%
Residential sale valuesApt −1.82% · Villa −2.0%
A materially lower transaction count in H1 2026, with modest declines in average residential transaction values.
Oman
H1 sales contracts34,017
Sales valueOMR 688M
Sales value change+12.2% YoY
Transaction count change+6.9% YoY
A growing property market in H1 2026, with both contract count and sales value rising year over year.
Market
Liquidity signal
Price signal
Cycle position
Primary distinction
Dubai
Very deep
Normalizing
Post-boom recalibration
Liquidity + buyer selectivity
Abu Dhabi
Strong
Rapid growth
Acceleration
Momentum + off-plan concentration
RAK
Smaller
Positive growth
Expansion
Tourism-led emerging market
Saudi Arabia
Large
Positive nationally
Transformation
Scale + regulatory evolution
Qatar
Smaller
Broadly stable
Rebound
Stable values + higher Q2 activity
Bahrain
Lower H1 volume
Slightly softer
Adjustment
Lower transaction activity
Oman
Growing
Positive sales value
Expansion
Rising contract count + value
Regional sources: ADREC — Abu Dhabi H1 2026; ValuStrat — Ras Al Khaimah H1/Q2 2026; CBRE — Saudi Arabia Q2 2026; ValuStrat — Qatar Q2 2026; CBRE — Bahrain H1 2026; Oman Observer / NCSI — Oman H1 2026.
The counterweight
Dubai also has a very large future supply pipeline.
Knight Frank’s registered-project pipeline suggested roughly 350,000 homes could be completed between 2026 and 2030.
That is the strongest reason not to treat the entire city as one trade. Supply can affect communities differently depending on product type, developer execution, handover timing and competing inventory.
Knight Frank also highlighted an important constraint: only about 60% of promised housing was delivered on time between 2022 and 2024, and the delivery ratio was lower again through Q1–Q3 2025. Its best-case scenario assumed roughly 70% of registered starts are delivered on time, equivalent to around 66,000 homes a year from 2026–2030—still above the long-term completion rate of about 36,000 a year.
Registered pipeline · 2026–2030≈350K homes
Source: Knight Frank — Dubai Residential Market Review, Special Edition Q3 2025; see also Knight Frank’s Q3 2025 oversupply analysis. Registered projects are not the same as guaranteed on-time completions.
What the data supports
A selective buyer window—not a promise of the bottom.
The evidence does not justify saying every Dubai property will rise from here. It does support a more specific conclusion: buyers have more room to compare, negotiate and select while the city retains unusually deep transaction activity and structural demand.
Record liquidity preceded the correction.
Dubai completed 205,400 residential sales worth AED 544.2 billion in 2025, establishing a very high activity baseline.
Pricing has normalized.
The August 2026 ValuStrat index was 3.1% below a year earlier, with wider corrections in particular locations and property types.
Buyer demand has reacted to softer pricing.
Ready-home sales recorded a 46.8% monthly jump in June and another monthly increase in July before easing seasonally in August.
High-value capital remains active.
Dubai recorded 296 US$10 million+ home sales in H1 2026 worth US$5.1 billion.
Population growth continues to support housing demand.
Dubai’s population reached 4.58 million at the end of 2025 after adding approximately 332,000 residents in one year.
Selection matters more in 2026.
Future supply is substantial. Developer quality, micro-location, competing inventory, payment plan, service charges, rental demand and resale liquidity should be evaluated at project level.
Research conclusion: for buyers with an appropriate ownership horizon and a property that fits their financial objectives, Dubai’s 2026 combination of normalized pricing and continued market depth deserves serious consideration. The data supports selective acquisition—not indiscriminate buying.
Primary sources & methodology
Evidence before opinion.
This report combines official transaction data and research from recognized market institutions. Definitions differ between jurisdictions, so cross-market figures are used as directional context rather than a like-for-like ranking.
SOURCE 01 · KNIGHT FRANKDubai Residential Market Review Q4 2025205,400 sales · AED 544.2B · record 2025 market SOURCE 02 · PROJECTORY / DLD DATADubai Property Market H1 202679,698 residential-market sales · AED 227.1B · off-plan/ready split SOURCE 03 · VALUSTRAT / KHALEEJ TIMESDubai Residential VPI · August 2026VPI 218.8 · −3.1% YoY · August transaction mix SOURCE 04 · VALUSTRATDubai Ready-Home Activity · June 2026+46.8% MoM · strongest monthly increase in three years SOURCE 05 · VALUSTRATDubai Ready-Home Activity · July 20263,546 ready sales · +11.4% MoM · VPI 219.2 SOURCE 06 · KNIGHT FRANKDubai US$10M+ Residential Sales · H1 2026296 deals · US$5.1B · ultra-prime activity SOURCE 07 · DUBAI MEDIA OFFICEDubai Population Now4.58M population · +332K · +7.5% SOURCE 08 · ADRECAbu Dhabi Real Estate Market Report · H1 2026AED 70.4B residential sales · price growth · off-plan share SOURCE 09 · RAK MUNICIPALITY / VALUSTRATRas Al Khaimah Real Estate · H1/Q2 20261,274 sales · AED 1.353B · +5.4% freehold capital values SOURCE 10 · CBRESaudi Arabia Real Estate Market Review · Q2 202641K+ residential deals · ~SAR 38B · +2.6% price index SOURCE 11 · VALUSTRATQatar Real Estate Review · Q2 2026755 sales · +23.6% QoQ · broadly stable VPI SOURCE 12 · CBRE / SLRBBahrain Real Estate Market Snapshot · H1 20264,951 transactions · BD 671M · residential sale-value movement SOURCE 13 · NCSI / OMAN OBSERVEROman Property Transactions · H1 202634,017 sales contracts · OMR 688M · +12.2% sales value SOURCE 14 · KNIGHT FRANKDubai Residential Supply PipelineRegistered project pipeline through 2030 · delivery-rate context
Methodology and disclaimer: Real estate statistics vary by source methodology, registration timing, property type and transaction classification. GCC comparisons use the latest available 2026 period identified for each market and are not a standardized league table. Historical performance does not guarantee future appreciation. Asking prices, transacted prices, capital-value indices, rental yields and project-level returns can differ materially. Buyers should evaluate developer track record, micro-location, project supply, payment terms, service charges, financing, tax, legal structure, rental demand and resale liquidity, and should obtain appropriate legal, financial, tax and real estate advice before purchasing.
Published by Deluxe Avenues
Dubai & UAE Research Desk · Independent market context for buyers comparing residential opportunities across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah and the wider Gulf.