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Published by DELUXE AVENUES — Research Desk
Executive Summary
Toronto’s housing challenge is not a lack of planning activity. It is a lack of conversion from planning approvals into completed housing delivery. The city’s 2024 Development Pipeline reached 854,898 proposed residential units, the largest recorded pipeline to date. Yet the same City of Toronto data shows annual average delivery of only 17,888 built units over 2020–2024, compared with 46,940 units receiving first planning approval per year and 24,342 units receiving final site-plan approval per year. This indicates that the central structural problem is not whether projects are proposed, but whether they advance efficiently through approval, financing, construction, and completion.
Toronto’s pipeline is large enough on paper to support long-term population growth. In practice, however, the system leaks housing at multiple stages. A large share of units remains under review, a smaller share reaches active construction, and a smaller share still reaches occupancy. The city’s own pipeline data shows that 86% of proposed residential units are not yet built. CMHC’s 2026 Housing Supply Report reinforces this concern by warning that condominium presales have collapsed, unsold inventory has risen, and tighter financial conditions now threaten the future pipeline of ownership-oriented housing supply, particularly in Toronto.
This creates a contradiction at the centre of the market. Toronto appears to have a very large housing pipeline, but the conversion of that pipeline into homes is weak. The result is a market in which the headline volume of proposed units overstates the amount of housing likely to arrive in the near term.
Key Findings
- Toronto has a conversion problem, not simply a planning problem. The city’s development pipeline is large, but the rate at which units move from proposal to completion remains weak.
- Approvals materially exceed completions. Between 2020 and 2024, Toronto approved 234,699 units at first approval stage, versus 89,440 units built over the same period.
- Under-review inventory is exceptionally large. More than half of pipeline units remain under review, delaying supply realization.
- The composition of supply is heavily condo-led. Condominium units account for the majority of total proposed units, while freehold and family-oriented supply remain limited.
- Future ownership supply is at risk. Weak condo presales, rising unsold inventory, and financing strain could reduce future starts even if planning applications remain high.
1. Toronto Housing Supply Overview
The City of Toronto defines the development pipeline as projects with activity between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2024. Within this framework, projects are grouped into three broad statuses:
- Under Review: projects not yet approved, refused, or still under appeal.
- Active: projects that have been approved, have building permits applied for or issued, or are under construction.
- Built: projects that became ready for occupancy and/or were completed within the pipeline window.
This distinction matters because a large pipeline does not guarantee near-term housing delivery. The development pipeline is best understood as a stock of potential supply at different levels of readiness. The market impact depends not on the gross size of the pipeline, but on how efficiently units advance through each stage.
Toronto’s 2024 pipeline contains 2,335 projects and 854,898 proposed residential units. The city estimates that this amount of pipeline could accommodate roughly 1.04 million additional people over Toronto’s 2024 population. However, that theoretical capacity should not be mistaken for imminent housing delivery.
2. Supply Pipeline Benchmark
Pipeline stage breakdown
| Stage | Units | Share of total pipeline | Interpretation |
| Under Review | 432,376 | 50.6% | Units still subject to planning review, appeal, or unresolved approvals |
| Active | 307,056 | 35.9% | Approved or progressing through permit/construction stages |
| Approved | 196,914 | 23.0% | Subset of active projects with delegated/council approval |
| Building Permit Applied For | 38,779 | 4.5% | Subset of active projects transitioning toward work on site |
| Under Construction | 71,363 | 8.3% | Projects physically progressing toward delivery |
| Built | 115,466 | 13.5% | Projects ready for occupancy and/or completed within the pipeline window |
| Total pipeline | 854,898 | 100.0% | Total proposed units with activity in 2020–2024 |
The stage distribution shows that Toronto’s pipeline is highly front-loaded. Over half of all proposed units are still under review, while only a comparatively small portion is under construction. This supports the core thesis of the report: the city’s supply problem is not primarily one of insufficient proposals, but one of insufficient throughput.
Benchmark table for report design team
| Stage | Units | % of Total | Avg Time to Next Stage |
| Proposed / Under Review | 432,376 | 50.6% | Multi-year; often delayed by planning, appeals, and revisions |
| First Approval Achieved | 234,699* | 27.5% of total pipeline equivalent | Often 1–3+ years to final planning/permit readiness |
| Final Planning Approval (Site Plan) | 121,711* | 14.2% of total pipeline equivalent | Often 6–24+ months to permit and construction mobilization |
| Under Construction | 71,363 | 8.3% | Commonly 18–36+ months to completion depending on product type |
| Built / Ready for Occupancy | 115,466 | 13.5% | Delivered stock |
*The first-approval and site-plan figures are cumulative 2020–2024 approvals and should be used as conversion references rather than strict point-in-time pipeline bins.
3. Supply Conversion Analysis
Toronto’s supply leakage becomes clearer when approval and build data are viewed together.
From 2020 to 2024:
- 234,699 units received first planning approval.
- 121,711 units received final site-plan approval.
- 89,440 units were built.
This implies several structural realities.
First, Toronto approved nearly three times as many units at first approval as it built over the same period. Second, even after final planning approval, the path to construction remains materially slower than the path to approval. Third, the pipeline can continue to expand even while actual completions underperform, creating a misleading impression that supply is keeping pace.
Indicative conversion metrics
| Conversion measure | Result | Interpretation |
| Built as a share of first approvals (2020–2024 cumulative) | 38.1% | A minority of first-approved units translated into built units during the same period |
| Built as a share of final approvals (2020–2024 cumulative) | 73.5% | Final approval improves delivery probability, but still leaves leakage |
| Under construction as share of total pipeline | 8.3% | Only a small portion of pipeline is physically being delivered |
| Units not yet built as share of total pipeline | 86% | Most pipeline supply remains unrealized |
Visual funnel concept for design team
Proposed / Under Review → First Approval → Final Approval / Site Plan → Permit / Construction → Completion
The funnel should emphasize that volume remains high at the top but narrows sharply at construction and completion. The largest drop-off occurs before physical building activity begins.
4. Annual Housing Delivery Benchmark
The City of Toronto’s annual build data for 2020–2024 shows the volatility of realized supply:
| Year | Units approved (OPA / rezoning) | Units approved (site plan) | Units built |
| 2020 | 22,663 | 25,924 | 17,988 |
| 2021 | 32,556 | 18,057 | 17,920 |
| 2022 | 73,047 | 19,733 | 16,870 |
| 2023 | 53,637 | 28,759 | 22,367 |
| 2024 | 52,796 | 29,238 | 14,295 |
| 5-year average | 46,940 | 24,342 | 17,888 |
The build pattern is notable for two reasons. First, completions remain materially below approvals throughout the period. Second, 2024 built output dropped to 14,295 units despite the record size of the overall pipeline.
This matters in the context of Toronto’s housing target of 285,000 homes by 2031. To meet this target from 2025 onward, average annual delivery would need to remain materially stronger than recent realized completion levels. A pipeline alone does not satisfy this requirement; only completed units do.
5. Construction Activity Benchmark
Construction activity represents the narrowest part of Toronto’s pipeline funnel. Of the 854,898 proposed units in the 2024 pipeline, only 71,363 units were under construction at the reporting date. This is far below the volume implied by total proposals and highlights the limited share of the pipeline that is meaningfully progressing toward near-term occupancy.
CMHC’s 2026 Housing Supply Report adds an important macro view. While national housing starts rose in 2025, Toronto was the notable exception among major markets, with starts falling well below historical averages on a per-capita basis. CMHC’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook also projects that Ontario housing starts will fall to near two-decade lows in 2026, driven by very low condominium pre-construction sales.
The implication is clear: Toronto’s pipeline may remain large in planning terms even as construction throughput slows.
Key construction influences
- Interest rates and financing costs: Higher financing costs weaken project feasibility and delay site mobilization.
- Presale weakness: Condo-led projects depend on presale absorption to secure financing. Lower presales can prevent approved projects from starting.
- Construction costs: Elevated labour and material costs compress developer margins and reduce willingness to proceed.
- Capital discipline: Lenders and equity partners are more selective in uncertain market conditions.
6. Condo vs Low-Rise Supply Benchmark
Toronto’s pipeline is overwhelmingly apartment- and condo-oriented.
According to the City of Toronto, the 2024 pipeline contains:
- 608,249 condominium units (71.1%)
- 131,676 rental units (15.4%)
- 4,266 freehold units (0.5%)
- 110,707 units with tenure not yet determined (12.9%)
This tenure profile highlights a structural imbalance. The city’s future supply is heavily concentrated in vertical product, while ground-related ownership supply remains extremely limited. Even within the rental category, purpose-built rental is growing from a relatively low base versus condominium supply.
For households seeking family-sized ownership housing, this composition matters. Toronto may have a large numerical pipeline, but it is not evenly distributed across housing forms. The supply that moves forward most readily is not always the supply that matches household needs most directly.
7. Future Supply Risk (2026–2030)
Toronto’s future supply outlook is vulnerable despite the record headline pipeline.
CMHC’s Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report states that condominium presales have collapsed, unsold inventory has surged, and tighter financial conditions are threatening the future pipeline of ownership-oriented housing supply, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver. CMHC also notes that Toronto’s starts were well below the historical average in 2025 and that the market faces rising risk of future ownership supply weakness.
This means Toronto may face a two-speed supply problem:
- A very large stock of proposed units at the planning stage, and
- A weakening ability to convert those proposals into starts and completions, especially in condo-led ownership segments.
In practical terms, the market may still look oversupplied in select condo submarkets today while simultaneously setting up a future shortage of delivered homes later in the decade.
8. Global Benchmark Comparison
Toronto’s development challenge looks different when compared with selected global gateway cities.
| City | Pipeline / delivery profile | Delivery speed | Supply efficiency | Key constraint |
| Toronto | Very large proposed pipeline; relatively modest construction and completion throughput | Moderate to slow | Weak conversion from planning to completion | Approvals-to-delivery leakage, condo financing risk |
| Dubai | Market-supported development with fast execution and strong developer-government alignment | Fast | High responsiveness when financing and demand align | Cyclicality and project timing risk |
| London | Large need base, substantial institutional framework, but development pace constrained by planning and viability | Moderate | Mixed; approvals do not always translate quickly to delivery | Planning complexity, viability, affordable housing obligations |
| New York City | Strong long-term absorption and large citywide production base, but highly uneven delivery across neighborhoods | Moderate | Better large-scale delivery than Toronto in recent years, but uneven spatially | Zoning constraints, neighborhood opposition, regulatory complexity |
| Hong Kong | High-density system with strong state role and formal supply planning | Moderate | Stronger land-led coordination, though land scarcity remains binding | Land scarcity, affordability, lengthy land development cycle |
Comparative insights
- Toronto vs Dubai: Toronto’s pipeline is larger in relation to its recent annual delivery than Dubai’s, suggesting weaker conversion efficiency. Dubai’s system is more execution-oriented when market demand and capital are aligned.
- Toronto vs London: Both cities face approval and viability constraints, but London has a deeper institutional delivery framework and a longer-established policy apparatus for affordable housing and strategic planning.
- Toronto vs New York City: New York’s regulatory environment is also complex, but the city added 136,000 homes in the last five years, showing stronger realized output than Toronto’s recent city-level build pace.
- Toronto vs Hong Kong: Hong Kong’s market remains heavily constrained by land scarcity, but its supply planning framework is more explicitly tied to long-term state-led land and housing production targets.
9. Key Structural Bottlenecks
Toronto’s supply conversion problem is shaped by several overlapping bottlenecks:
1. Planning and appeals friction
A large volume of units remains under review, indicating long lead times before approvals become construction-ready.
2. Final-approval-to-start lag
Even after planning approvals are granted, projects must still secure permits, financing, presales, and contractor mobilization.
3. Condo dependence
Because the pipeline is heavily condo-led, market softening in the condo segment has an outsized effect on total starts and future completions.
4. Cost inflation
Construction cost inflation reduces feasibility, especially for marginal projects and family-oriented product.
5. Capital market discipline
Projects increasingly need stronger presale performance and more conservative underwriting to proceed.
6. Policy friction
Layered policy requirements can improve planning outcomes but may also add time, uncertainty, and cost if not paired with delivery-oriented implementation.
10. Key Insights
- Pipeline size does not equal supply. The stock of proposed units materially overstates likely near-term completions.
- Toronto’s housing system is constrained by conversion efficiency. The main bottleneck lies between proposal, approval, financing, construction, and delivery.
- Completions remain far below proposal volumes. Recent annual delivery is not keeping pace with the scale of the pipeline.
- The market is highly exposed to condo conditions. Weak condo presales can impair total supply formation.
- Final approvals matter more than headline proposals. Projects with final approvals have better odds of converting to delivered units, but still face material leakage.
- Family-oriented ownership supply remains limited. Numerical pipeline growth does not necessarily solve structural supply mix issues.
- Future supply risk is rising despite record pipeline levels. A weakening start environment today can translate into fewer completions later.
- Execution is now the defining housing variable. Planning policy alone will not solve the delivery gap.
11. Actionable Insights
For investors
Focus on submarkets and product types where actual construction progress is visible rather than relying on headline pipeline counts. In a slower-start environment, completed and near-complete inventory can become more valuable than early-stage pipeline exposure.
For developers
Projects with stronger tenure diversification, more resilient financing structures, and clearer end-user demand may outperform pure speculative condo strategies. Delivery certainty is becoming a competitive advantage.
For policymakers
Success metrics should shift from total proposed units toward stage-by-stage conversion, time-to-approval, time-to-start, and time-to-completion. The core policy challenge is throughput, not only volume.
For buyers
Headline claims of “massive future supply” should be treated cautiously. In many cases, the relevant supply is the stock that is already under construction or close to occupancy, not the total proposal count.
12. Recommended Charts and Tables for Design Team
- Supply funnel chart
Proposed / Under Review → First Approval → Final Approval → Permit Applied → Under Construction → Built - 5-year completions trend chart
Annual built units from 2020 to 2024, with comparison lines for first approvals and site-plan approvals. - Pipeline stage breakdown table
Units and percentage share for Under Review, Active, Under Construction, and Built. - Tenure composition chart
Condominium, rental, freehold, and undetermined share of total pipeline. - Global comparison table
Toronto, Dubai, London, New York City, and Hong Kong across delivery speed, supply efficiency, and key constraints.
Conclusion
Toronto’s housing challenge is often described as a shortage of planned supply. The data suggests a more precise diagnosis. The city has built an exceptionally large development pipeline, but the conversion of that pipeline into completed housing remains too weak to close the gap between need and delivery.
The central issue is therefore not whether Toronto can generate enough proposals. It is whether the system can move enough of those proposals through approvals, financing, construction, and occupancy in time to matter. On this measure, Toronto remains constrained.
A city can have a record pipeline and still underdeliver. Toronto’s challenge is not planning. It is execution.
APPENDIX:
1) City of Toronto — Development Pipeline
https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/data-research-maps/research-reports/planning-development/development-pipeline/
2) City of Toronto — Development Pipeline 2024 PDF
https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/964b-CityPlanning-Development-Pipeline-2024.pdf
3) City of Toronto — Planning and Housing Committee item confirming 2024 pipeline totals
https://secure.toronto.ca/council/agenda-item.do?item=2025.PH22.1
4) CMHC — Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report
5) CMHC — Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report news release
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/spring-2026-housing-supply-report
6) CMHC — Housing Market Outlook 2026
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook
7) CMHC — Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data Tables
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/housing-market-data/monthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables
8) Statistics Canada — Building permits (latest releases)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260312/dq260312c-eng.htm
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/251212/dq251212a-eng.htm
9) NYC official planning source — Where We Live NYC 2025, Goal 2
10) Hong Kong Housing Bureau — Statistics on Private Housing Supply in the Primary Market
https://www.hb.gov.hk/eng/publications/housing/private/pshpm/stat202506.pdf
11) Hong Kong Budget 2025–26 — private housing supply statement
https://www.budget.gov.hk/2025/eng/budget31.html
12) Greater London Authority — Housing in London 2025
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2026-01/Housing%20in%20London%202025%20report%20%28002%29.pdf
13) Dubai Land Department — Open Data / Real Estate Data
https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/open-data/real-estate-data/
14) Dubai Land Department — Project Status / Mashrooi
https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/eservices/real-estate-project-status-landing/real-estate-project-status/
