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↓ 2.1% year over year
Skip to content Toronto and the GTA are showing a rare combination: prices remain below last year, transaction activity has begun to recover, new supply is tightening, and the Bank of Canada policy rate is far below its 2023 peak. The evidence does not prove an exact market bottom—but it does point to a strategically buyer-friendly window worth examining now.
For buyers evaluating Toronto real estate, the most important signal is not simply that prices have declined. It is the combination of softer pricing, improving transaction activity, lower borrowing costs than during the recent rate peak, and a noticeable contraction in new housing supply.
That creates a different decision environment from 2022. Buyers are not being asked to chase a rapidly appreciating market. Yet the conditions that previously gave buyers abundant choice are beginning to change.
Deluxe Avenues Research Desk: “The opportunity is not based on predicting the exact bottom of the market. No responsible advisor can know the precise bottom until it has already passed. What matters is recognizing when buyers still have negotiating leverage while some of the indicators that could eventually support stronger pricing are beginning to change.”
TRREB's August 2026 data is especially important because the decline in new listings was much larger than the change in sales. TRREB itself said that less choice and more competition between buyers could ultimately result in renewed price growth in the months ahead.
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, September 3, 2026.
This divergence is the heart of the current buyer-window argument. Transactions were only modestly lower than a year ago, while the number of new listings entering the market fell sharply.
Primary source: TRREB — August 2026 Market Watch / September 3, 2026 release. TRREB also reported that the seasonally adjusted HPI was essentially flat from July, while the average selling price edged higher month over month.
For buyers reviewing GTA properties for sale, today's conditions combine four signals that rarely arrive at exactly the same time.
Scroll through this section to see how lower prices, recovering demand, tightening supply, and a less restrictive policy-rate environment intersect.
CREA statistics show 19,269 GTA residential sales in Q2 2026, up 7.4% from Q2 2025. At the same time, median prices remained lower across major property types.
Primary source: Canadian Real Estate Association — Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Residential Activity, Q2 2026.
The GTA condominium market shows the correction-to-recovery pattern particularly clearly. TRREB reported higher sales alongside materially lower new and active listings, while buyers continued to benefit from lower prices and negotiating leverage.
For purchasers comparing resale with Toronto pre-construction properties, this makes property selection, timing, carrying costs, developer strength, and long-term value especially important.
GTA condo apartment sales in Q2 2026 — up 8.8% from 4,395 a year earlier.
New condo listings in Q2 — down 19.0% year over year.
Active condo listings at quarter end — down 15.4% year over year.
GTA average condo selling price — down 7.5% from $686,387 in Q2 2025.
City of Toronto average condo selling price, versus $717,403 in Q2 2025.
TRREB reported an average GTA selling price of $1,334,544 in February 2022. The August 2026 average was $993,410.
Important: This does not mean every GTA home is 25.6% cheaper than in February 2022. Average selling prices are influenced by the mix of properties sold in a particular month. The comparison is useful as broad market context, not as a same-property valuation.
Sources: TRREB February 2022 Market Watch and TRREB August 2026 Market Watch.
On September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%. In July 2023, the Bank had raised the target to 5.00%.
Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate, maintained at the September 2, 2026 decision.
The Bank of Canada increased the target for the overnight rate to 5.00% on July 12, 2023.
Mortgage-rate context: Mortgage pricing does not move one-for-one with the Bank of Canada's overnight rate, and fixed mortgage rates are strongly influenced by bond yields. The policy-rate comparison therefore describes the monetary-policy environment; it is not a claim that every mortgage rate has fallen by the same amount.
Sources: Bank of Canada — September 2, 2026 decision and Bank of Canada — July 12, 2023 decision.
The evidence does not justify saying that Toronto has definitively reached the bottom or that prices are guaranteed to rise immediately. It does justify saying that fall 2026 offers a combination of conditions serious buyers should not ignore.
Prices remain lower. August's GTA average selling price was down 2.7% year over year and the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.5%.
Buyer activity has shown recovery. Q2 residential sales increased 7.4% year over year.
Supply is tightening. August new listings fell 14.1% year over year, much faster than the 2.1% decline in sales.
Condo conditions have tightened. Q2 condo sales rose 8.8% while new listings fell 19.0% and active listings fell 15.4%.
The policy-rate environment is less restrictive. The Bank of Canada's target rate is 2.25%, compared with the 5.00% setting reached in July 2023.
Research conclusion: For buyers with appropriate financing, a sufficient ownership horizon, and a property that fits their financial and lifestyle objectives, current Toronto and GTA market conditions deserve serious consideration before a clearer recovery potentially reduces choice or negotiating leverage.
This report uses public market statistics from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Canadian Real Estate Association, and Bank of Canada. Source links below lead directly to the underlying reports or official releases.
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